Mood:  caffeinated

Next time use a pea-shooter. Make sure he doesn't inhale.

Mary Jo Foley's recent article on the future of Windows XP, Office XP, and the Microsoft .Net strategy was a very interesting read. The thought of paying for the use of software exercised quite a number of people, mostly of the anti-Microsoft bent. The feedback comments were damning Microsoft for being greedy, but I think they missed Microsoft's point.

Microsoft faces diminishing revenues and a cyclical business environment. Microsoft counts on high initial sales of new products and upgrades. In the corporate world, there are no real "killer apps" that require a company to upgrade from Windows NT 4.0 to Windows 2000. The one feature that might have done the trick, Active Directories, has not been easy to implement and most companies have avoided it like the plague. As for the home user, most applications work fine on Windows 98 or 98SE, there are no compelling reasons to upgrade to Windows ME. Even the switch to the NT kernel in Windows XP will not be reason enough for the average home user to upgrade. With sales of new computers heading somewhere below sea level, Microsoft needs some way to make up the revenue difference.

Enter Software as Service. Copyrighted material is in its most basic form just bits, whether it is a CD-ROM, a book, or even an opinion column. The owner of any copyrighted material would love to charge the end user each time he or she uses or looks at or uses those copyrighted bits. Instead of getting payment once, the producer of the intellectual property gets a revenue stream that continues as long as demand continues. Secondly, if the product is no longer capable of being stored by the end user, the producer does not lose sales to the gray market, OEMs, piracy, or private sales of used bits. Microsoft knows these things and that is why they want to charge people for the use of those bits.

The only problem is, it won't work. I'll give you some reasons why:

1. People want to own software. Never mind the fact that due to the licensing agreement, no one really "owns" the software they have purchased. People want to receive something tangible, like a CD, when they plop down their money. Especially when they buy something they consider a product. We see cable as a service. We see software as a product.

2. Users do not want to pay monthly fees just to get their computers to run. If you have no cable, you can use an antenna and your TV still functions. But if we were forced to use Microsoft's new model, the moment you decided you didn't want cable any longer, your TV would cease to function. Even worse, if you were to write a Word document and then decide you no longer wished to use Word XP and terminated your service, you would not be able to edit your document any further until you paid and downloaded the necessary Word XP components. While I am sure there would be some basic functionality left on the system, you would not be able to just fire up a document and edit it freely without paying a toll.

3. The infrastructure just isn't there yet. In the business environment, system administrators have enough on their hands just keeping local traffic moving along. Imagine the problems that will occur when 10,000 users (not an unrealistic number in my company) try to access WordXP and have to download a new module to get it to do their bidding. At the home user level, only a small percentage of residences are wired for broadband access. If you go to use a feature that hasn't been already installed into your cache, you'll have to download it at 56kbps or less. That is not something the average user is going to have much patience for.

4. Technical support will be a nightmare. Documentation for Windows9x and ME is already pathetic. To get help, you have to plod through the online support system, assuming your computer will function enough for you to get there, hoping against hope that something will appear that is remotely similar to your problem. The alternatives are the newsgroups or paying $50+ for a book that may or may not be of help. Now imagine that your OS and applications are kept on a separate server, a server you have no direct access to. If the software as service does not take into account the quirks of your system or network and does not run, your only alternative will be to contact Microsoft for support. These are the same people that have already stopped giving away free phone support for their products.

5. People want privacy. Right now, there is an ongoing battle regarding the right of the individual to privacy on the Internet. Many people don't see what all the fuss is about, if you go to a site and view free content, you should be willing to give up a bit of privacy. Others feel giving any information to potential marketers is a bad idea. If people are already upset about cookies and confidentiality, how do you think they'll feel when Microsoft maintains all your personal correspondence, checkbook records, and personal finance records? Do you really trust Microsoft to maintain your privacy when they store your data files on their servers? Keep in mind; this is the same company that is responsible for all the security holes in Microsoft Outlook and Exchange. Even if they did promise you security, would they be capable of following through?

I can't argue with Chairman Bill's logic. They need to find a way to keep the revenue torrent flowing and Microsoft feels that .Net is the answer. They see constant income and a way to innovate on the fly, allowing upgrades on an ongoing basis. But for the average user, we will see a loss of privacy and a loss of control over our own computers. I just don't think we'll buy it.

Tom Gladstone is an Automation Specialist for a very large insurance company located in Winter Haven, Florida.

Disclaimer: 'Your Turn' is a commentary column written by a ZDNet News reader. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author, not those of ZDNet, ZDNet News nor its editors.

Posted by Portuno Diamo at 2:15 PM EDT

Updated: Sunday, 22 April 2007 2:18 PM EDT

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